Bounds resolve six infected catch rate pairs but no infection fraction pair at six NEON sites in May–August 2016–2024

We asked which site comparisons follow from tick counts and pathogen tests when untested tick outcomes are unknown. We linked recorded blacklegged tick nymph counts, survey distance and individual Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato tests at six NEON sites. The May–August 2016–2024 panel has 1,618 visits, 4,269 identified nymphs, 3,328 tests and 675 positives. No singleton catch had a test. In 519 of 556 tested catches, one nymph was left untested. We allowed every untested identified nymph to have either result. We then gave equal weight to 28 year-month cells with effort at all sites. All 15 site pairs have overlapping infection fraction bounds. Six infected catch rate pairs have a fixed order. For example, Treehaven has 6.91–11.90 possible positive nymphs per 1,000 m; Blandy has 1.19–3.47. Planned scope checks leave all fraction pairs unresolved and five to eight rate pairs resolved. These are exact bounds for the recorded identified catch, given correct counts, links and test classifications. They are not confidence intervals and do not establish orders for full tick populations or human disease risk. The package includes the source archive, an independent audit, code, all results and figures.

tick surveillance · Ixodes scapularis · Borrelia burgdorferi · missing outcomes · partial identification · open data · NEON · catch rate · pathogen testing