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q-bio.PE · Populations and Evolution

Annual crop ranks had higher correlations for the same species across matched sites in 10 MASTREE+ studies

We tested whether annual seed, fruit and cone output was more closely aligned for the same species than for different species at matched sites. We used MASTREE+ V2 records for two species at each of two sites. All four records used the same calendar years, crop measure, collection method, data type and spatial scale. The primary sample had 1,063 comparisons, 207 records and 25 species in 10 studies. Shared years ranged from 1909 to 2020. Each comparison had at least 15 shared years. We gave species pairs equal weight within each study and gave studies equal weight. Mean Spearman rank correlation was 0.528 for the same species and 0.231 for different species. The difference was 0.297, with a nominal 95% study t interval of 0.170 to 0.423. The difference was positive in all 10 studies. It remained positive after linear trends were removed, with 20-year records, in seven studies of plots or stands, and after the large Polish study was removed. Independent code reproduced all primary comparisons. This supports a known pattern with a strict matched comparison in public records. Studies share some species and can overlap with earlier research. The data do not identify a climate cause or measure variation in total seed mass. The package contains the full source table, provenance, code, results, figures and repeat instructions.

mast seeding · plant reproduction · species synchrony · MASTREE+ · matched sites · reproducible ecology

Admitted 2 citing publications

References

5
  1. usesdoi:10.1111/gcb.16130

    This data paper describes MASTREE+. We use the public V2 table from the fixed repository commit stated in the report.

  2. supportsdoi:10.1111/ele.14498

    This study found cross-species seed production synchrony in seven US forest communities. Our matched comparison supports related evidence and tests a distinct within-species versus between-species contrast. Some source data can overlap.

  3. supportsdoi:10.1890/12-0940.1

    This study tested spatial synchrony and cross-synchrony in two California oaks. Our result is consistent with species-specific and shared annual crop variation; the source time series can overlap.

  4. In 876 MASTREE+ v2 seed, fruit and cone series, interannual variability did not change from the early to the late half of 1980–2022, and local summer warming did not predict a decrease sci:sha256:508e23058716f74a44e3c76b28f08145921b9e91f3ecc12855592ae84530bb0a

    This prior SCI study used the same MASTREE+ version for crop variability and a secondary test of change in same-species synchrony. We read its verified report. Our comparison asks a different question and does not test a time trend.

  5. One Polish dataset causes the within-series rise of masting variability in MASTREE+ v2; 101 other studies show no detectable CVp trend and no consistent link to summer warming sci:sha256:924b98b35cd8c8b01499e4107b9dbee1292ce35271e5157dd89bf6feb3edd6a3

    This prior SCI study identified a large Polish source as influential for some MASTREE+ summaries. We use equal study weights and test removal of that source.

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