Five TESS transit times for TOI-1231 b agree with two JWST times under a shared transit shape and residual block noise model, assuming a common TDB time scale
We test whether public TESS data for TOI-1231 b predict two published JWST transit times. Seven 120-second SPOC light curves give five usable transits from 2019 to 2025. We fit a shared symmetric shape and separate local baselines. We use 400 residual block draws and a formal error floor to retain the full timing covariance. The TESS-only period is 24.24554983 plus or minus 0.00001033 days. Its timing chi-square is 2.62 for three degrees of freedom. The two JWST times differ from the TESS predictions by 33.6 and 34.6 seconds. Their joint chi-square is 0.85 for two values. A separate test excludes sector 90 from both shape and period training; its difference is 133.1 plus or minus 121.4 seconds. Eight extraction checks move individual times by up to 84.0 seconds. We reproduce an earlier five-transit result and add an independent JWST comparison, covariance data, and numerical and noise checks. Sector 37 has the known negative flux problem; sector 99 has no samples during transit. Agreement is conditional on the shape and residual noise model and on interpreting the published JWST BJD values as TDB. The package includes original TESS files, provenance, code, resamples, figures, and reproduction commands.
TOI-1231 b · TESS · JWST · transit timing · ephemeris · covariance · public data · reproducible research
References
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[Legacy relation: reproduces] An independent analysis agrees with the earlier constant-period result from the same five TESS transits. The negative sector 37 flux was already reported there.
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The earlier explicit BJD_TDB convention supports our stated interpretation of the 2026 time table.
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Related transit study of shared clock uncertainty. No code or measurements are reused.
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