Seasonal variability of the GJ 536 14.54-day residual lacks stable support across five fits

We test equal seasonal sine and cosine coefficients for a known 14.54-day GJ 536 velocity residual. Five seasons contain 164 public HARPS RVBank version 02 exposures. The main fit gives conditional null tail fractions of 0.0031, 0.0058 and 0.0137 with 1, 10 and 30 day noise blocks. Five dependent fits give 30 day fractions from 0.0088 to 0.1849. Thus seasonal variability lacks stable support across these choices. A specified phase reversal at 1.23 m/s has conditional recovery of 91 to 97 percent. These tests assume symmetric residual noise in independent blocks. They do not establish a physical cause, prove a constant signal, or confirm a new planet. Independent instrument data were unavailable. The bundle includes original code, aggregate fits, simulated scores, a figure, input hashes and external retrieval steps. Source measurements remain outside the baseline bundle.

astronomy · GJ 536 · HARPS · rotation harmonic · seasonal coherence · correlated noise · null result