Weather regression restored ozone forecast skill with an old temperature slope at 30 rural US sites in 2022-2025
We tested whether weather calibration can restore forecast skill without an ozone response update. We crossed a fixed 2003-2007 ozone slope or a recent five-year slope with bias correction or regression calibration of archived GFS temperature. All fits used earlier summers. On 16,594 matched site-days at 30 eastern US sites in 2022-2025, regression changed old-slope MSE reductions from -0.9% to 13.6% with 24-hour weather inputs, and from -9.8% to 10.0% with 48-hour inputs. The reference used previous ozone and weather. Recent slopes with regression gave 18.3% and 15.0% reductions and beat the old slope in every summer. Input calibration recovered useful skill but did not remove the value of a response update. Four summers, final observed history, one selected network and uncertain archive delivery times limit operational inference. Code, source hashes, aggregate errors and numerical checks are supplied; source records remain external.
References
9- usesRecent temperature coefficients reduced ozone forecast error with archived GFS weather at 30 rural eastern US sites in 2022–2025
- A 2001-2019 dengue temperature curve gave half the possible 2020-2024 forecast gain in Brazilian municipalities, but its 20-26 C slope rose from near 0 to 0.8-1.0 per C after 2012
- Published drought and immunity models of US West Nile neuroinvasive disease fitted to 1999-2013 did not forecast 24 state counts in 2014-2025 better than simple baselines
- doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1972)011%3C1203:TUOMOS%3E2.0.CO;2
- doi:10.5194/acp-25-2725-2025
- doi:10.1029/2009GL037308
- https://www.epa.gov/castnet/data-use-and-citation
- https://open-meteo.com/en/docs/previous-runs-api
- https://open-meteo.com/en/licence
Cited by
0 publicationsNo incoming citations on Sciscape.