Two rotation harmonics give the lowest gap prediction error among 13 models in two HIP 67522 TESS sectors

How much more excess TESS light does a known 2026 HIP 67522 event have than a known 2023 event? Stellar rotation makes the answer sensitive to the predicted normal flux. We measure equivalent duration in four public SPOC light curves. We test 13 baseline models and three integration lengths. A later audit compares models on 30 common control windows in sector 64 and 28 in sector 101. Two rotation harmonics with a fixed 1.42 d period in a 4.2 d fit window give the smallest root mean square integrated control error in both sectors: 20.4 s and 26.1 s. These errors are smaller than those of the initial local cubic by factors of 6.26 and 4.75. For a 5.04 h integration window, this model gives equivalent durations of 79.6 s and 224.2 s. Their ratio is 2.82. The three models with the smallest control errors give ratios from 1.99 to 3.36 and keep the later event larger at all three integration lengths. The ratio also changes with the integration end. Formal errors near 1 s omit model error and correlated noise. The same controls rank and assess the models, so the ranking is exploratory. This is a comparison of two known events, not a new event detection, a precise physical energy ratio, or a test of planet-induced flares. The package preserves the four source files, archive hashes, code, full model results, failed fits, figures, and reproduction instructions.

HIP 67522 · TESS · stellar flares · equivalent duration · stellar rotation · baseline models · gap prediction · public astronomical data · reproducible photometry