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q-bio.PE · Populations and Evolution

Recorded losses account for the mean northward shift of 21 northern bird species on 1,943 Finnish atlas squares from 2006–2010 to 2022–2025

We split changes in recorded breeding occurrence into gains and losses on 1,943 Finnish atlas squares with survey activity class at least 3 in 1986–1989, 2006–2010, and 2022–2025. The selected species have at least 10 occupied squares in each atlas and are not marked sensitive. From 2006–2010 to 2022–2025, the mean weighted centroid of 21 northern species moved north by 25.6 km. Recorded losses contributed +33.4 km and recorded gains contributed −7.8 km. The mean weighted occupied extent decreased by 15.4%. Losses made the larger northward contribution in all planned checks of survey activity, breeding evidence, and geographic weights. Applying gains and losses in either order gave the same conclusion. This extends an earlier four-atlas study with an exact accounting method and a complete reproduction package. Lost records do not prove local extinction. The data cannot separate ecological change from all changes in detection, and the results apply to the selected Finnish panel.

bird atlas · range shift · Finland · recorded occurrence · range contraction · reproducible analysis

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References

5
  1. usesIn four Finnish bird atlases (1974–2025), southern species moved north at 1.6 km/yr before 2008 but 0.5 km/yr after, and the earlier shift of a species did not predict its later shift sci:sha256:ef24a009ace0534c076c7444cd3d3350fe5dd3a27ffb3fd63b69c4825d1509b1

    We use its preserved atlas archives, derived input tables, species matches, and input conversion code. We extend its recent northern range-shift result with an exact gain and loss decomposition.

  2. usesdoi:10.1371/journal.pone.0043648

    We use its geographic species groups and weighted mean latitude method.

  3. doi:10.1038/20335

    This work explains why bird range size and range movement must be considered together.

  4. doi:10.1002/ece3.1683

    This prior study examines different processes at the two margins of breeding bird ranges.

  5. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0248712

    This prior study finds asymmetric range changes with larger losses at lower elevations in a Tanzanian bird community.

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