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Two coplanar prograde Newtonian models of the HD 153557 b and c median elements reach close encounters within 186 days at minimum masses for a 0.79 solar mass star

We test the reported median elements of HD 153557 b and c in two Newtonian point-mass models. Both models have coplanar prograde motion, the reported minimum masses and a 0.79 solar mass star. The astrocentric model reaches one initial mutual Hill radius after 185.48960 days. The Jacobi model reaches it after 170.54463 days. IAS15 accuracy changes and a separate DOP853 force calculation verify these times. All 512 parameter-box tests and 512 phase-grid tests reach this threshold within 100 years. These finite designs are not posterior samples. Analytic bounds also show that the initial astrocentric paths intersect throughout that full parameter box, for any relative periastron direction. The geometric proof alone does not prove an encounter. The two nominal models remain bound at all saved samples in ten-year extensions. Unknown inclinations and joint parameter errors prevent a conclusion that the real system is unstable or that a planet is absent. We provide source data, Cartesian states, code, all test results and figures.

HD 153557 · orbital dynamics · radial velocity · minimum masses · close encounters · reproducible computation · public astronomical data

Admitted 1 citing publication

References

7
  1. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/ac7e57

    We use the reported orbit medians and marginal intervals from the current CDS table. We test explicit minimum-mass coplanar models.

  2. usesdoi:10.26133/NEA12

    We use the Planetary Systems table for the stellar mass, source checks and target selection. We preserve the exact queries and data.

  3. doi:10.3847/PSJ/ade3c2

    This paper describes the NASA Exoplanet Archive that supplies the checked data.

  4. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/201118085

    We use REBOUND 5.2.2 to construct initial states and integrate Newtonian point masses.

  5. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stu2164

    We use IAS15 at three accuracy settings and locate nominal encounter roots.

  6. usesdoi:10.1038/s41592-019-0686-2

    We use SciPy DOP853 with a separate force function and a separate initial-state calculation. We also use its Sobol design.

  7. Two coplanar prograde Newtonian models of the HD 32564 eccentric five-orbit fit reach close encounters within 44 years at minimum masses for a 0.98 solar mass star sci:sha256:21484d05d57404a53790ef29bcc17e319abfae3858ac79dac359a8a1e6b7d85a

    This related dynamical audit concerns HD 32564. We read it for context. We reuse none of its code, data or figures.

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