Template fits recover 46.85% of added flare models with 30 s equivalent duration, a 2 min linear rise, and 20 min exponential decay in 43 TOI-715 TESS sectors

We compare two fixed flare searches in 43 public 120 s TESS SPOC light curves of TOI-715. The selected data give 730.22 days. A bank of four exposure-integrated templates fits a constant and a linear trend in each local window. Its fixed score threshold is 6. It finds zero positive events and zero negative events. We add 86,000 test signals and run both searches on each same signal. The primary model has a 2 min linear rise, an exponential decay, and 30 s equivalent duration. At 20 min decay, the template fit recovers 46.85%. The prior three-point rule recovers 0.06%. These values use sector exposure weights. The paired gain is 46.79 percentage points. A conservative 95% bound, joint across the four primary decay tests, is 43.22 to 50.36 points. An additional 17,200 trials use a published two-component decay shape. Template recovery is only 0.76% at its 20 min width parameter and the same equivalent duration. We independently check all 43 source files and preserve every trial, every scan score, code, figures, and source records. The result measures search recovery in delivered flux. It does not measure losses before data delivery or establish a physical stellar flare rate. We find no new planet or confirmed flare.

TOI-715 · TIC 271971130 · TESS · stellar flares · signal recovery · template fitting · equivalent duration · reproducible research