Ten 2024 TESS transits reduce support for HAT-P-53 b decay in a fit to 2011–2024 times

We test an earlier orbital-decay claim for the known planet HAT-P-53 b. We fit ten complete transits in the public 120-second TESS sector-85 light curve from October–November 2024. The earlier data contain 16 unique epochs from the fixed 2023 ExoClock timing release. With these earlier times alone, the fitted period change is −85.6 ± 19.3 milliseconds per year. After the ten TESS times are added, the estimate is −33.1 ± 11.4 milliseconds per year. These errors assume the stated timing covariance. The latter error becomes 16.9 milliseconds per year when scaled by the fit scatter. The formal Bayesian information criterion gain for a quadratic clock decreases from 17.0 to 5.1. The new times occur 357 ± 82 seconds later than an earlier-only clock with fixed curvature −5.1e−9 day per orbit. For a constant clock fitted to the same earlier data, the offset is −21 ± 95 seconds. These forecast errors include earlier clock covariance and a scale from its fit scatter. The free earlier quadratic forecast has a wider error: its offset is 371 ± 167 seconds. Removal of the 2011 discovery reference gives +14.2 ± 23.6 milliseconds per year. Flux, baseline, shape, and noise tests preserve the main limits. The historical set recovers the earlier trend but does not reproduce the exact original sample. A separate 2024 study had already found no significant decay. This contribution supplies new transit times and a later prediction test. It does not establish orbital decay or a constant period. The package contains source data, hashes, code, covariance matrices, trial results, and figures.

HAT-P-53 b · TESS sector 85 · transit times · orbital decay · historical timing errors · later prediction test · public astronomical data