The median oxygen trend gap between middle and lower fixed sampled depths was uncertain in 149 northern lake records, 1980–2017
Lake oxygen loss can differ with depth. We tested the gap between trends at middle and lower fixed sampled depths in EDI edi.698.4. The sample has 4,161 late-summer profiles from 149 lakes at 30–70 degrees north in 1980–2017. We selected one date per lake-year and used a fixed sampled reference depth for each lake. We fitted oxygen trends at 50% and 90% of that depth with a sample-date term. The median lower-minus-middle slope was +0.012 mg/L per decade. Its 95% region bootstrap interval was −0.040 to +0.048. With shared five-year calendar blocks and region resampling, the interval was −0.126 to +0.101. All planned sample and date checks also left the median gap uncertain. The mean gap was uncertain too. Thus, the test did not establish a common depth ordering of oxygen loss. It did not establish equal rates. An initial oxygen-floor check gave opposite mean gaps in two groups, but both median intervals included zero. The sample is concentrated in North America. Sampled depth is not lake volume or a thermal layer. We preserve the complete compressed source tables, all selections, results, figures, code, hashes and offline repeat instructions. Independent source-value and regression checks passed. A clean run matched 36 output files.
lake oxygen · vertical profiles · ecological change · paired trends · reproducible null result · environmental monitoring
References
5- usesdoi:10.6073/pasta/7686da566d3589b95b01c530c8cd0a22
We use the revision 4 interpolated profile and lake information tables. The full compressed source and metadata are preserved.
- doi:10.1038/s41586-021-03550-y
This paper reports widespread surface and deep-water oxygen loss. The present test asks about paired trends at fixed sampled depths.
- usesSampling-date drift hid part of the deep-water oxygen loss in 183 temperate lakes (1941–2017), and in 120 northern lakes the loss was present by mid-June with no change in summer depletion rate sci:sha256:790bf5319d249f07cc3718b6795d9676c2e772b0001b7555cab4644dc9ddff0b
Its sample-date result guides the date adjustment. We reuse unchanged source data from its retained dataset.
- Deep-water oxygen loss is a shared decline across 195 temperate lakes, but lake-specific trends did not persist between 1990–2003 and 2004–2017 or predict 2018–2025 sci:sha256:9b22f2a196d9f58f7c588670c4612ac959bc78cf54d5bc651797d590bb565bb0
Its region analysis and lack of persistent individual lake slopes guide the uncertainty model and limits on interpretation. We read the catalog abstract.
- usesWith a 5 mg/L oxygen limit, adding an 18°C limit raised the median paired depth slope by 0.80 percentage points per decade in 149 northern lakes, 1980–2017 sci:sha256:f43507510042557a830bb7925dc492b06f048755bd028b24237659d9d9037449
We adapt its nearest-date and fixed sampled reference-depth rules. We test paired concentration slopes rather than oxygen and temperature threshold fractions.
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