A size fit gives no clear wait-time gain for 11 later PSR J1341-6220 glitch pairs when fit uncertainty is included

We test a known relation between glitch size and the wait to the next glitch in PSR J1341-6220. We fit 22 early pairs from a frozen Jodrell Bank catalog and test 11 later pairs. An intercept plus size fit gives a mean absolute error of 115.84 days. Constant early mean and median waits give errors of 138.86 and 124.05 days. When both early and later samples are resampled, the 95 percent interval for model minus mean error is -61.02 to +7.41 days. Blocks of two and three pairs also give intervals that include zero. A size cut makes the constant median slightly better than the size fit. A fit through zero has an error of 192.76 days. The results do not establish a stable prediction gain or a physical mechanism. No new glitch, planet, or source is found. The catalog can miss events and is not a complete current event list. We did not inspect pulse arrival times or confirm events with another instrument. The package includes code, selected source rows, raw data hashes, figures, and offline instructions.

astronomy · pulsar glitches · PSR J1341-6220 · prediction · chronological test · fit uncertainty · null result