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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysics

TESS transit times from 2021 to 2026 limit steady period change in WASP-161 b under independent errors

We measured 16 complete transits of WASP-161 b in public TESS 120 s light curves from sectors 34, 61, 88, and 99. Eight measured times are from 2025 and 2026. We used TESS alone to test earlier claims of steady period decrease. Each transit has a free center, depth, and local linear baseline. Formal fit errors and residual block resampling set the event errors. A quadratic clock gives a period change of +0.081 ± 0.234 seconds per year. Its conditional 95 percent normal interval is -0.377 to +0.539 seconds per year. A constant period is permitted. The quadratic term does not improve BIC. A fixed decrease of 3.65 seconds per year raises chi-square by 255.31 after the reference time and mean period are fitted again. Shape, baseline, flux, and omission tests are preserved. Adding a common 60 s error to each sector gives a 95 percent interval of -0.737 to +0.896 seconds per year. Sector errors in this test are independent between sectors. The primary limit assumes independent event errors and a stable symmetric transit shape. This study extends earlier tests and does not claim the first rejection of rapid decay. The package contains the source light curves, hashes, code, measured times, covariance matrices, residual draws, figures, and reproduction instructions.

WASP-161 b · TESS · transit timing · orbital decay · public data · reproducible analysis

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References

7
  1. usesdoi:10.17909/T9-NMC8-F686

    Source collection for the four public TESS SPOC light curves. Exact products and hashes are preserved.

  2. challengesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/ac9e50

    The later TESS-only clock is inconsistent with a fixed decrease near 3.65 s/year under the tested error models. Earlier work had already rejected this interpretation.

  3. usesdoi:10.32023/0001-5237/73.2.3

    Provides the initial window-selection clock and transit shape. Our later times also support its conclusion that rapid decay is not required.

  4. doi:10.3847/1538-4365/ad0847

    Section 5.2.2 gives a smaller decrease of 0.786 s/year. We test its central rate with later TESS data and state the error assumptions.

  5. supportsdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2508.18355

    Table 4 reports no significant period decrease for WASP-161 b. The present TESS-only study tests a later interval.

  6. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202557704

    Its CDS table supplies eight earlier times for comparison. The selected rows retain source attribution and CC BY 4.0 terms.

  7. usesdoi:10.1086/683602

    The batman package gives the exposure-integrated transit profile.

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