A lognormal model is within one AICc unit of a broken power law for 21 RZ Psc dip depths above 0.018

We test whether 21 published RZ Psc dip depths above 0.018 require a sharp distribution break. We convert 24 markers in a public source figure to numerical depths and check a second rendering of the same events. We fit individual-depth likelihoods for a single Pareto law, a smooth lognormal model, and a model with a searched sharp break. The smooth model has an AICc value only 0.92 above the break model. A test that refits the full break search gives p = 0.0255 under an unbounded single Pareto law. The same statistic gives p = 0.0512 under a fitted Pareto law with the physical depth limit of 1. A simulation from the fitted smooth model gives p = 0.327 for its observed likelihood deficit relative to the break model. Break-test probabilities rise to 0.0548 and 0.2156 at fixed cutoffs of 0.025 and 0.035. The 12 depths above the source break of 0.053 give a Pareto exponent of 2.02 and an exact conditional 95 percent interval of 1.05 to 3.32. These results give evidence for curvature under one reference model, but do not establish a sharp physical transition. All probability results assume independent, exact components and complete recovery above a fixed cutoff. Blended events and unknown detection efficiency limit that interpretation. The publication preserves the source images, converted depth table, hashes, code, simulations, figures, and reproduction instructions. It reports no new planet or dip event.

RZ Psc · TESS · exocomets · dip depth distribution · power law · lognormal · parametric bootstrap · selection effects · reproducible astronomy · digitized data