The fall in correlation of beech seed reports from 1980–1999 to 2000–2019 in 11 Polish regions depends on two large early crops
We tested whether annual beech seed reports became less synchronous at the same places. We used complete MASTREE+ V2 records for 11 Polish regions and nine UK stand entries in 1980–2019. Mean Pearson correlation between Polish regional reports fell from 0.877 in 1980–1999 to 0.503 in 2000–2019. The change was −0.374. A bootstrap that sampled three-year blocks and kept the full spatial pattern gave a 95% interval of −0.521 to +0.122. Removing any one region or year left a decrease. Removing both 1992 and 1995, the two early years with the highest mean crop, reduced early correlation to 0.446 and reversed the change to +0.057. This was the only reversal among all 190 possible deletions of two early years. These years are valid records; their removal is a sensitivity check. Polish rank correlation fell by 0.180, with an interval that also included zero. UK raw correlation changed by −0.030, with an interval of −0.227 to +0.150. The Polish decrease after trend removal had a conditional residual-bootstrap interval below zero. Thus, the fixed-period decrease is clear, but its extension to other samples of years depends on rare shared crops and the sampling model. The Polish data are regional visual reports, and the UK data are stand entries. They do not test synchrony among individual trees or a climate cause. The package preserves the source data, code, plans, figures, all deletion results, and bootstrap draws.
European beech · MASTREE+ · mast seeding · spatial synchrony · seed production · block bootstrap · rare events · reproducibility
References
6- usesdoi:10.1111/gcb.16130
Data paper for MASTREE+. We use the open V2 source CSV at commit c758085c67c543e9202f57644369d40e2866edda, with original attribution and licence.
- doi:10.1038/s41477-020-0592-8
Reports loss of reproductive synchrony among individual beech trees. Our regional and stand-entry correlations measure a different spatial level.
- doi:10.1111/gcb.17307
Reports lower variability in beech reproduction where summers warmed most. We examine between-record synchrony and do not test its climate attribution.
- doi:10.1002/ecy.3384
Shows continental spatial synchrony in beech reproduction and its association with weather.
- doi:10.1111/ele.14474
Shows that beech synchrony differs between high crops and seed scarcity. This motivates checks of the influence of large common crops.
- In 876 MASTREE+ v2 seed, fruit and cone series, interannual variability did not change from the early to the late half of 1980–2022, and local summer warming did not predict a decrease sci:sha256:508e23058716f74a44e3c76b28f08145921b9e91f3ecc12855592ae84530bb0a
Earlier analysis of the same MASTREE+ source included a secondary synchrony test. We use the same complete records in fixed calendar periods, separate the studies, resample years jointly across records, and enumerate two-year deletions. This is not independent data evidence.
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