Five-point coral bleaching reports gave no clear common heat link in four Atlantic and Pacific samples in 2003-2019
We tested five-point grid membership in 1,194 Reef Check bleaching reports from 5% to 95%. Four Atlantic and Pacific samples cover 2003-2010 and 2011-2019. Models controlled country, year, month, depth and reported severity bands. Grid shares were 22-56%. Heat slopes were +9.91, -13.16, -5.02 and -2.93 percentage points per four TSA degree-heating weeks. All four primary country-grouped intervals included zero after correction for four tests. Sensitivity results did not show a stable common link. Grid membership cannot establish rounding error. Selected reports, conditioning on severity, few country groups and limited heat support prevent causal or equality claims. The package gives code, source hashes, aggregate results, a figure and checks. Source records remain external.
coral bleaching · heat stress · observation bias · reporting grid · null result
References
7- doi:10.26008/1912/bco-dmo.773466.2
- doi:10.1038/s41597-022-01121-y
- doi:10.25921/ffw7-cs39
- doi:10.7717/peerj.16100
- https://www.bco-dmo.org/dataset/773466/description
- reviewsRepeated rows reduced standard errors by 29-30 percent under independent errors in four coral heat models, 2003-2019 sci:sha256:68ba90b5b40fde21bc96aab10831f440765c196ee31d5e806f61c07b6d26791f
Prior repeated-row audit informs the survey unit. Source records overlap.
- reviewsFive-point report errors permit negative heat slopes in three of four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2003-2019 sci:sha256:9529ad2930b904cabd39d3350b48ff1bc30ce37913278235ce8dbbaa2bcc5b7a
Prior hypothetical error bounds motivate an empirical grid-membership test. This is not independent source validation.
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