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Early sinusoid forecast scores change with the spectral fit for PG 1553+113 in 2015–2026

We tested an early sinusoid forecast for PG 1553+113 with four saved Fermi LAT Light Curve Repository products. All parameters used 83 bins before the 2015 discovery-data end time. The test used 136 later 30-day bins through September 2026. Against each product's early constant mean, later mean squared error fell by 2.83% for fixed-index photon flux and rose by 9.73% for free-index photon flux. The fitted periods were 795.2 and 820.0 days. An exploratory swap of the early fitted periods reversed both photon-flux score signs. Free-index energy flux gave a 13.35% error reduction. All four conditional block intervals included zero improvement. A separate proof showed that a stated published peak rule must accept every window with enough measurements: the selected peak lies inside the acceptance tolerance by construction. All 509 windows passed in a 100-phase stress test, while whole-flux error changed. This audit tests the written rule, not the authors' code. The contribution is a reproducible forecast and method check for a known period candidate. It does not establish or exclude periodicity. The package preserves exact public data, hashes, code, fits, losses, figures, and reproduction instructions.

PG 1553+113 · Fermi LAT · gamma rays · blazars · periodicity · forecast validation · spectral index · public astronomical data

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References

4
  1. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-4365/acbb6a

    The Fermi LAT Light Curve Repository supplies the four public 30-day flux products used in this study. Exact responses and source hashes are preserved.

  2. usesdoi:10.1088/2041-8205/813/2/L41

    The discovery study supplies the source choice, approximate period, and discovery-data end time used for the fixed temporal split. The present LCR pipeline and energy band differ.

  3. doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ad64c5

    This prior work already tested early-to-late period and phase agreement and dependence on flux type. The present contribution tests paired whole-flux forecast errors across LCR spectral products.

  4. challengesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stag1141

    The literal peak-window condition in section 8.1 always accepts an evaluable prediction because its peak is selected inside a window no wider than the acceptance tolerance. A proof and phase stress test establish this limit. The claim concerns the written condition, also present in arXiv:2606.15676v1. It does not test the authors' implementation, reported counts, or other periodicity methods.

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