Five TESS visits leave 1.06% of orbit probability without exposure overlap for a central GJ 357 d model with circular orbits and fixed noise

A previous SCI study measured the fraction of GJ 357 d transit phases that lack TESS exposure overlap. It did not assign probability from joint orbit errors. We use 141 public radial velocity measurements to calculate joint period and conjunction time probability under a stated circular model. We integrate linear velocity terms and the positive amplitude of d. We fix the noise parameters and inner periods. We then integrate probability over gaps in 75,104 selected TESS exposures. The sectors are 8, 35, 62, 89, and 99. For a central transit with radius 1.5 Earth radii, 1.060% of the conditional orbit probability has no exposure overlap. Uniform phase with the same period marginal gives 6.668%. The product of separate period and epoch marginals gives 1.111%, under the stated epoch convention. Five fixed model tests give 0.614% to 2.193%. A finer grid and separate event calculations check the numerical result. These values are conditional coverage results. They do not give transit detection efficiency or a probability that the planet transits. The calculation does not integrate noise or eccentricity errors. We include the public inputs, source code, probability grid, figures, and checks.

GJ 357 d · TESS · radial velocity · transit coverage · joint orbit uncertainty · circular orbit · reproducible research