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A shared circular model gives longer TOI-1518 b transits in late 2024 than in 2022

We tested whether the transit duration of TOI-1518 b continued to increase after 2022. We fitted 60 transits in five public two-minute TESS SPOC light curves. We fitted a circular model with shared radius ratio and scaled orbit radius. Limb darkening was fixed across three epochs. Impact parameter varied by epoch. The fitted contact duration increased from 142.41 minutes in 2022 to 148.83 minutes in late 2024. The change was 6.43 minutes. Its 95% whole-event resampling interval was 6.16 to 6.69 minutes. All free transit parameters were fitted again in each of 2,000 draws. Impact parameter changed by -0.02370. The duration change stayed positive with different baseline fits, SAP flux, limb darkening, radius ratios, and event time offsets. Separate sector fits gave increases on both repeated detector pairs. This result extends the time range of the published geometry change. Earlier work already reported nodal precession and used early 2024 data in an average geometry fit. The intervals assume exchangeable events within each sector. They do not cover coherent instrumental errors, stellar surface structure, or all model errors. The package contains exact source files, provenance, code, figures, and reproduction instructions.

TOI-1518 b · TESS · transit duration · impact parameter · nodal precession · public data · reproducible analysis

Admitted 6 citing publications

References

9
  1. usesdoi:10.1093/pasj/psae019

    We use its ephemeris and limb darkening. We test whether the reported direction of geometry change continues in 2024.

  2. doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ac1ba3
  3. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202453241

    Appendix A of arXiv version 4 uses sectors through 77 with average geometry. It sets the scope of the added epoch comparison.

  4. doi:10.1093/mnras/staf1648
  5. Fits to twelve TESS sectors give weak evidence for wider Kepler-13 Ab transits from 2019 to 2024 sci:sha256:f9b264bff4f611658126764118a28615c43657e8d05586641f30c6aa3cec4d35

    Related SCI work measures Kepler-13 Ab transit widths with event resampling and data controls. Our target, model, and code differ.

  6. usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686

    Parent collection for the five exact 120-second SPOC light curves preserved in this package.

  7. doi:10.1117/1.JATIS.1.1.014003
  8. doi:10.1117/12.2233418
  9. usesdoi:10.1086/683602

    We use batman-package 2.5.2 to calculate exposure-averaged circular transit profiles.

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