GMN orbits 2019-2026 confirm Taurid resonant swarm returns in 2022 and 2025; the 2025 fireball-class rate was 0.88 times the 2022 rate, against a prediction that 2022 was the last strong return
We tested published predictions for the Taurid resonant swarm (Taurid meteoroids in the 7:2 resonance with Jupiter) with Global Meteor Network (GMN) orbits from 2019 to 2026. We used solar longitude 213-234 degrees and normalised with sporadic meteors. The Asher and Clube (1993) model lists 2022 (offset +17 degrees in mean anomaly) and 2025 (-25 degrees) as swarm years. These two years had the two highest of eight resonant-branch rates (chance 1/28). The GMN s-Taurid rate was 92.5 and 50.9 per 100 sporadic meteors, against 4.5 to 5.6 in 2020-2024 and 2026. Precise Southern Taurid orbits had a narrow peak at a = 2.21 au in both years. This is 0.05 au below the nominal 2.256 au, probably because of a GMN speed bias. The fraction of these orbits in the band 2.15-2.30 au was 0.61-0.63, against 0.10-0.15 in other years. The regular Southern Taurid rate did not change. The excess increased by a factor of 1.4-1.6 for each magnitude brighter. For fireball-class meteors (magnitude -2 or brighter), the excess was 30 times (2022) and 26 times (2025) the background. The 2025/2022 ratio was 0.88 (95% CI 0.56-1.36). Thus the data do not support the Egal et al. (2022) statement that 2022 was the last strong return until the mid-late 2030s. Faint meteors had a 2025 rate of approximately one half of the 2022 rate. A Gaussian fit in mean-anomaly offset gives a centre of +5 degrees and a sigma of 24 degrees. It also fits a weak 2019 excess (+58 degrees, 8 percent of 2022). From this fit we predict 0.36 times the 2022 level for November 2029 and 1.1 times for 2032. Limitations: only two swarm years; the GMN network grew by a factor of 10; GMN shower labels and the orbit band are not fully independent; the profile fit is exploratory; and the forecast intervals include only the sampling error.
Taurid meteor shower · resonant swarm · 7:2 mean-motion resonance · Global Meteor Network · meteoroid orbits · fireballs · forecast test · 2P/Encke · s-Taurids
References
11- uses, supportshttps://www.cantab.net/users/davidasher/taurid/swarmyears.html
Published swarm-year table (Asher and Clube 1993 model) with the predicted Delta M values that we tested.
- supportshttps://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1993QJRAS..34..481A
Asher and Clube (1993): the resonant swarm model and its swarm-year predictions.
- supportshttps://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1998MNRAS.297...23A
Asher and Izumi (1998): swarm model; larger meteoroids stay longer in the swarm.
- challenges, reviewsdoi:10.1093/mnras/stac1839
Egal, Wiegert and Brown (2022) predicted that 2022 would be the last strong swarm return until the mid-late 2030s; the GMN 2025 fireball-class rate was 0.88 times the 2022 rate.
- uses, supportsdoi:10.3847/PSJ/ac2250
Devillepoix et al. (2021): s-Taurid activity window and resonant semi-major axis signature from the 2015 return.
- usesdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2202.05141
Egal et al. (2022) observational synthesis of the Taurid complex: swarm-year activity properties and radar non-detection.
- usesdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2107.12335
Global Meteor Network methodology; source of the orbit data (CC BY 4.0).
- usesdoi:10.48550/arXiv.1911.11734
GMN trajectory and orbit uncertainty method (Vida et al.).
- useshttps://globalmeteornetwork.org/data/
GMN yearly trajectory summaries 2019-2026, CC BY 4.0.
- doi:10.48550/arXiv.2506.03327
Wiegert et al. (2025): telescope limit on 50-100 m swarm members.
- IMO-calendar meteor outburst predictions 2019-2026: GMN orbits show an excess for 10 of 78 testable encounters (1% in placebo years), and most detected peaks are within 1 hour sci:sha256:06fc7b60b64ed30a258e50491fe2f95241e347f043bee042cd8168f7fa9a147b
Earlier campaign test of IMO meteor outburst predictions with GMN orbits; it did not test the Taurid resonant swarm.
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