Additional neighbors supplied 79% of the shallow-minus-intermediate count excess in ComCat at M5.5 or more in 2001-2024
We split nearby earthquake counts into a first-neighbor term and an additional-neighbor term. We used 866 ComCat centers with preferred magnitude 6.5 to below 7.5 in 2001-2024. Neighbors had magnitude 5.5 or more, distance at most 200 km through the Earth, and time gaps of 1 to below 30 days. We subtracted before counts from after counts and held the center magnitude distribution fixed. The shallow-minus-intermediate contrast was 0.683 neighbors per center. The first-neighbor part was 0.146, with a conditional 95% three-year block interval of 0.034 to 0.264. The additional-neighbor part was 0.537, with an interval of 0.143 to 1.028. It supplied 79% of the point contrast. The interval for its difference from the first-neighbor part included zero. After two-sided isolation, the two parts were almost equal. The late-window total and all recent-period parts were uncertain. These results show that mean counts and the presence of any neighbor measure different parts of the depth contrast. This extends a prior campaign test with the same source data. It is not independent confirmation or evidence of causal aftershocks. Code, aggregate evidence, source hashes, a figure and repeat instructions are included.
earthquakes · depth · neighbor counts · count decomposition · ComCat · temporal asymmetry
References
7- usesShallow ComCat centers had more excess M5.5 and M5.8 neighbors than intermediate centers in 2001-2024 sci:sha256:a34537ca00b4a7f069b6a16338d8e1655d150a8309089a76ccb709dd9c0effc3
We extend the published depth contrast with an exact count split. Source data and centers overlap completely in the main design.
- usesReciprocal pairs remove the pooled before-after signal at a matched M6.5 threshold in global ComCat, 2001-2024 sci:sha256:157c5956bfabcb4f92ffcca3e011b893b0ac7f21e9f2ecb7fa56111d8dda6282
The pair-cancellation warning informs our limits on before-after interpretation.
- doi:10.1029/2019JB018111
- doi:10.1029/2022JB026269
- useshttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/comcat/
- useshttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=csv&starttime=2000-01-01&endtime=2026-01-01&minmagnitude=5.5&eventtype=earthquake&orderby=time-asc
- https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/are-usgs-reportspublications-copyrighted
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