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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysicsstat.AP · Applications

Early Kepler duration slopes raise forecast errors for 17 of 20 signals selected with season offsets

We tested whether early transit duration slopes improve later predictions in the published Kepler catalog. The source sample had 561 Kepler Objects of Interest. Coverage and quality rules left 194 signals at 189 integer KOI host groups. We fit eight Q2-Q9 quarter medians with four season offsets and one common slope. We selected the 20 largest absolute slope-to-error ratios, using early responses only. We compared their Q10-Q17 errors with an early fit that had the same season offsets and no slope. Adding the slope raised root mean squared error for 17 of 20 signals. The geometric mean error ratio was 1.743. A descriptive 95% host bootstrap interval was 1.214 to 2.378. KOI 13.01 was a strong exception, with a ratio of 0.175. Requiring five transits per quarter gave two wins in a newly selected set of 20 and a geometric mean ratio of 1.800. Removing outlier-bit cuts gave two wins and a ratio of 2.031. The loss also remained with absolute error and with each later quarter removed. This is a retrospective catalog test. Source templates, flags, and the source sample use the full mission. The result tests an early ranking and forecast rule. It does not refute full-record duration slopes, identify a physical cause, or confirm a new planet. The package preserves the source tables, provenance, all row and coverage decisions, fits, scores, figures, and code for an offline rerun.

Kepler · transit duration · forecast validation · season offsets · early selection · reproducible astronomy

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References

7
  1. usesdoi:10.3847/0067-0049/225/1/9

    Holczer et al. (2016) supply the public per-transit duration changes, errors, flags, mean durations, and periods. We preserve numerical Tables 2 and 3 from CDS.

  2. usesdoi:10.26093/cds/vizier.22250009

    The CDS catalog preserves the numerical Holczer tables used here.

  3. usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stab1359

    Shahaf et al. (2021), Table 1, defines the 561-object source sample. Its full-record slopes do not set the early ranks. The prior list of 31 trends supplies context.

  4. usesThirty of 31 reported Kepler duration trends keep their direction in quarter removal tests with fixed season offsets sci:sha256:d08d132c9408b1fa490b39488a97fb037ac73784f629935c32733a9b702ff2f1

    We reuse its quarter bounds, official season labels, saved FITS header bytes, their provenance, and prior 31 trend labels under CC BY 4.0. Its full-record quarter removal test motivates a separate later forecast test. We reuse no code.

  5. Season offsets reduce Q10–Q17 depth errors for 15 of 19 Kepler signals selected from Q2–Q9 catalog data sci:sha256:40547a5271a3ab0a6a92cac20ab3e0b220a050bbeaade9c1c36335e4d4982411

    This prior SCI study tests early and late Kepler depth patterns with a season model. It motivates the chronological control. We test duration slopes and reuse none of its files or code.

  6. doi:10.1088/2041-8205/774/2/L19

    Van Eylen et al. (2013) found seasonal transit depth differences. This motivates a season control but does not establish a duration bias.

  7. doi:10.3847/1538-3881/ac0f7a

    Millholland et al. (2021) use transit duration changes to study orbital inclinations. This gives the scientific context for testing catalog slope persistence.

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