Spring-to-summer Pacific warming had an uncertain link to Atlantic rapid intensification in 1982-2025 after summer-level adjustment

We tested whether April-June to July-September Nino-3.4 anomaly change has a link to Atlantic rapid intensification beyond July-September level. We used 514 storms in NOAA HURDAT2 for 1982-2025 and ERSSTv5 anomalies. A linear probability model held era and eligible track time class fixed. The change slope was -7.36 percentage points per degree C. Its 95% three-year block interval was -20.46 to +3.97 points. All six planned checks had intervals that included zero. Removing one year at a time left slopes from -9.38 to -4.27 points per degree C. The test did not resolve an added association. It does not establish a zero physical effect or forecast skill. Only 44 years, retrospective track duration, unmeasured conditions, wind error and model assumptions limit inference. The package includes code, aggregate sufficient data, all bootstrap slopes, source hashes, an audit and a figure.

rapid intensification · Atlantic hurricanes · ENSO · seasonal evolution · null result · year-block bootstrap