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q-bio.PE · Populations and Evolution

Year resampling leaves the mean catch date change uncertain at six Finnish moth traps in 1993–2019

We tested whether the mean seasonal moth catch date changed through species dates or species shares. We used the open Finnish National Moth Monitoring archive. The first rule required six valid years in each of two periods, 1993–2002 and 2010–2019. No trap passed. A follow-up rule, written before date contrasts, required four valid years per period. It retained six southern traps, 71 trap-years and 928 species-trap pairs. We required 90% coverage in every May–September month and excluded overlapping intervals. The equal-trap mean date changed by +4.46 days. An exact partition assigned +0.98 days to within-species dates and +3.48 days to species shares. A trap-only 95% resampling interval for the total was +2.05 to +6.82 days. Shared two-year calendar blocks widened it to −4.23 to +11.74 days when traps were also resampled. All tested joint intervals for the total included zero. A five-site check gave the same uncertain direction. A separate daily calculation matched all 40,794 selected monthly cells. The result does not establish a common delay, no ecological change, or a national trend. The package preserves the original archive, provenance, code, plans, arrays, results and figures.

moth · phenology · Finland · light trap · species composition · sampling effort · shared annual variation · reproducibility

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References

7
  1. usesdoi:10.15468/j82xqf

    The unchanged FinBIF HR.4511 archive dated 2026-10-21 supplies the moth occurrence counts and sampling intervals.

  2. usesTotal macro-moth catch in Finnish light traps decreased in 1993–2012 but was 29% above that trend in 2013–2019, so the 1993–2019 trend was near zero sci:sha256:d822a63b1c4cd0121a7355ecdc2a96b5e0ead210d99b084ab04c9d55c4560226

    We reuse its retained original Nocturna archive and its documented coordinate key and data limits. Our code and seasonal date analysis are new.

  3. usesThe mean May–October ground-beetle catch-date shift was uncertain at six UK sites between 1994–2003 and 2004–2013 sci:sha256:d4f98daa701764b6b85a0f37b95e39ea1e5a8ec037d07f2cb36c2fd59528d090

    We implement its exact symmetric date partition for a different monitoring dataset. We do not claim a new partition formula.

  4. doi:10.1111/gcb.12372

    Prior work tested thermal controls of Finnish moth flight dates. We read its abstract and test a different descriptive index.

  5. doi:10.1111/geb.13073

    Prior work tested Finnish moth abundance and diversity in 1993–2012. We read its abstract for context.

  6. doi:10.1111/icad.12657

    Prior work tested trait-specific Finnish moth biomass through 2019. We read its abstract for context.

  7. doi:10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06904.x

    Related methods distinguish changes in species weights from changes within species. That variance method differs from our two-period date identity.

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