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q-bio.PE · Populations and Evolution

Mean estimated duck concentration from squared shares was higher at lower May pond totals in 24 prairie regions, 1974–2019

We tested whether breeding duck distributions were more concentrated in years with fewer May ponds. We used ten taxa, 24 fixed prairie survey regions, and 44 complete annual surveys from 1974 to 2019. The response was mean concentration from squared bird shares divided by region area shares. With a linear time trend, half as many ponds predicted a rise of 0.167 in concentration. The nominal 95% calendar-HAC interval was 0.065 to 0.268. A block interval was 0.083 to 0.251. An exact partition gave fitted changes of 0.096 in the shared distribution and 0.071 in differences between taxa. The largest positive taxon estimates were for green-winged teal, redhead, canvasback, and scaup. The US-only estimate had the opposite sign, and an entropy measure had an interval that included zero. An approximate survey-error check reduced the main estimate to 0.119. The intervals omit joint survey error. The result applies to estimated regional distributions under the tested model. It does not prove an effect of drought or measure use of individual wetlands. The package preserves source archives, provenance, code, results, figures, and repeat instructions. Separate calculations passed, and a full repeat gave identical hashes for 16 numerical files.

waterfowl · species distribution · spatial concentration · May ponds · survey error · Prairie Pothole Region · open data · reproducible ecology

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References

6
  1. usesA linear regression did not detect greater overlap of ten duck taxa at lower May pond totals across 24 prairie regions, 1974–2019 sci:sha256:896cd8e5102177f028333d9f88a49b3db71f0e252fef62200df78ad7a4a103ec

    We reuse its unchanged retained source archives, source coverage rules, and documented survey limits. We test concentration within taxa, which differs from its test of overlap between taxa.

  2. Current May pond changes reduced spatial prediction error by 12% beyond prior duck shares for ten taxa in 24 prairie strata during 18 test years, 2000–2019 sci:sha256:983106b74e74c7d6d426c6295a2a110b3e58b8602ef62d79ee94c9114252668b

    This study sets prior context for the use of current pond data in models of regional duck distribution. We read its verified main text.

  3. In the USFWS duck survey (1974–2026), pond counts explain the breeding latitude of all ducks; the 2022–2026 northern shift needs lower US visibility corrections; pintail and wigeon moved north sci:sha256:e29a61d7fc4a9132ff75f1e758fe199642c0a072ccc87ef873c2aef6a8f160b0

    Its catalog abstract describes later changes in US visibility factors. Together with the verified overlap study, this limits our later-year extension.

  4. doi:10.1675/1524-4695(2002)025%5B0465:RODDTW%5D2.0.CO;2

    Prior work on the scale dependence of duck and wetland relations. We read its available abstract.

  5. doi:10.1002/wmon.1074

    Prior habitat and conservation models establish duck density responses to wetland amount and other landscape factors. We read its available abstract.

  6. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0100034

    Prior open work on prairie pond and climate trends sets the limits of large-scale wetness measures. We read its Introduction and Discussion.

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