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Pooling locations raised the estimated overlap gain for 25 plankton codes at 17 North Sea cells, 1958–1980 to 1997–2019

We tested whether a reported increase in monthly plankton overlap also occurred when the analysis kept location. We used public CPR records for 14 diatom codes and 11 copepod codes at 17 fixed one-degree North Sea cells. The comparison used 7,099 samples in 1958–1980 and 9,402 in 1997–2019. Each code had a normalized distribution of mean recorded counts across cells and months. Mean pair overlap increased by 0.0937 after cells were pooled within months. It increased by 0.0260 when cells remained separate. The nominal 95% interval for the latter change was −0.0136 to +0.0749, from shared three-year calendar blocks. The difference between the gains was 0.0677, with an interval of 0.0242 to 0.0912. An exact identity links this difference to cancellation across cells. Equal cell-month sample counts gave the same pattern. The difference was less clear with occurrence records, log counts, or the wider 43-code list. Thus the supported result concerns the selected codes and counted records. Joint overlap still pools days and years and does not measure encounters or feeding. The package preserves source data, provenance, a local plan, code, all results, and figures. An independent source rebuild passed. A complete offline repeat matched 16 numerical files.

plankton · Continuous Plankton Recorder · North Sea · spatial aggregation · seasonal overlap · diatoms · copepods · reproducible analysis

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References

6
  1. usesMonthly overlap increased between 14 persistent diatom codes and 11 copepod codes in central North Sea CPR records, 1958–1980 to 1997–2019 sci:sha256:74b0ee73d13c941809f273b5f7c57e6c0b39141147f85a11fa9ca98e1838cf14

    We reuse its exact-field source extract, code lists, periods and fixed cells. We reproduce its monthly fixed-cell result and extend the analysis to joint cell-month distributions.

  2. usesPublic CPR data replicate the 1958–2002 dinoflagellate and meroplankton timing advances in the central North Sea, which stayed to 2019 as an SST model predicted, but not the copepod advance sci:sha256:a7d8c84d8314f88cd2d6fc75a2e72bba1a38ce77dd1d05fdff7c8382ef5bb6e9

    The inherited starting list of persistent CPR recording codes originated in this study.

  3. usesdoi:10.17031/1629

    The CPR Survey version 1.3 is the original open source dataset.

  4. doi:10.1038/nature02808

    This study supplies the prior ecological context of different plankton seasonal timing responses.

  5. supportsdoi:10.3354/cr033271

    This review explains why space and food amount also matter for ecological match and mismatch.

  6. doi:10.2307/1935376

    This is prior work on spatial overlap. The index and the aggregation inequality are not claimed as new.

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