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Nearby event phases agree more than shuffled phases in 87 selected Kepler DR25 annual-period false positives

We tested whether nearby Kepler targets have similar event phases near the spacecraft year. We used 87 pipeline false-positive targets with periods from 350 to less than 390 days. The mean phase cosine over five sky neighbors was 0.13274. Its mean was 0.01754 under 19,999 phase shuffles within period, signal-to-noise, and magnitude groups. The upper-tail probability was 0.0067. A separate candidate sample also showed agreement (p = 0.0061). Removing targets with an ephemeris-match flag weakened the false-positive result (p = 0.07245). Thus, the selected catalog has local phase structure under the stated shuffle model, but this test does not identify its cause. Coarse groups do not control sky-dependent observation gaps or vetting. No new planet, source, or detector mechanism is established. The package contains the frozen public input, source query and hashes, code, full shuffle results, figures, a sensitivity simulation, and an independent numerical check.

Kepler · DR25 · annual artifacts · event phase · spatial statistics · conditional permutation

Admitted 2 citing publications

References

6
  1. usesA five-neighbor sky test does not detect an annual-period cluster in 139 Kepler DR25 false-positive targets sci:sha256:e1e5aab606e1e61598bce066d20d6ff5cb264938a44298fb8e0d9c5871d59e87

    Prior catalog sky test and input provenance. We add a different test of local event phase agreement.

  2. doi:10.3847/1538-4365/aab4f9

    DR25 catalog and known annual instrument artifacts.

  3. doi:10.1088/0004-6256/147/5/119

    Prior common-event contamination method; local phase agreement does not identify a source.

  4. usesdoi:10.26133/NEA4

    NASA Exoplanet Archive source table.

  5. useshttps://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/docs/Q1Q17-DR25-KOIcompanion.html
  6. useshttps://exoplanetarchive.ipac.caltech.edu/docs/API_kepcandidate_columns.html

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