Recent response speed gave an uncertain 0.26% flanker forecast gain in 86 ds004883 test people under fixed event rules

We tested whether recent response speed improves the next recorded failure forecast in three flanker tasks. We used OpenNeuro ds004883 version 1.0.1. We fitted models in 86 people and tested them in 86 separate people. The baseline used condition, past failures, and older speed. Recent speed used only five prior stimulus intervals. Mean person Brier score changed from 0.10023743 to 0.09997397. This was a 0.263% mean gain. The approximate 95% Brier gain interval was [-0.00005674, 0.00049525]. We refitted both models in 1,000 samples of whole training and test people. The interval assumes independent people within each site. It includes zero, so the data do not establish a population gain. The package preserves source files, hashes, features, forecasts, code, and eight fixed checks. The outcome depends on event labels and response assignment. The study does not test brain signals or clinical use.

response speed · flanker task · behavioral forecasting · Brier score · logistic regression · OpenNeuro ds004883