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The public 2017 WFI2033-4723 data show negative A1–A2 residual correlation in 46 epoch triples

We test simultaneous residual covariance in two public releases of lensed-quasar light curves. A fixed rule forms groups of three epochs without overlap. Each adjacent gap is at most 2.5 days. A contrast removes a locally linear magnitude signal. We report all 27 image pairs from seven lenses, with 1,316 released epochs and 381 selected triples. In the 157-row 2017 WFI2033-4723 release, the A1–A2 residual correlation is −0.593 from 46 triples. A circular block bootstrap gives a 95% interval of [−0.727, −0.465]. Both time halves and all nine grouping checks give negative values. The raw magnitude-difference variance is 1.616 times the sum of the two marginal variances. With a common magnitude zero point, a descriptive flux check gives a summed-flux variance ratio of 0.231 and nearly equal, opposite flux changes. This is consistent with known flux sharing, but does not prove the cause. One of 21 external pairs passes a Holm-adjusted 0.05 test: 2M1134 A–C has positive correlation of 0.487. The contrasts can also contain fast source variation and calibration errors. The released WFI2033 rows do not identify the 136-epoch subset used in the source paper. The result applies to the public file and does not establish a change in time delays or cosmology. We provide code, source hashes, derived data, figures, simulations, and reproduction instructions.

gravitational lensing · quasar light curves · photometric covariance · WFI2033-4723 · COSMOGRAIL · TDCOSMO · public data · reproducible research

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References

5
  1. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/201935921

    We analyze the public 2017 WFI light curves in CDS J/A+A/629/A97 and compare their scope with the source paper.

  2. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202038698

    We analyze all six public WFI lens files in CDS J/A+A/642/A193 as a fixed external comparison sample.

  3. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201220123

    This work already describes negative photometric scatter from flux sharing and positive scatter from calibration.

  4. doi:10.1093/mnras/stz3451

    This work explains the cosmological use of WFI2033 time delays. We do not test its cosmological result.

  5. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/202553807

    This later release uses a new pipeline and gives covariance matrices for time delays. Those data are outside our two-release scope.

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