The adopted Kepler-1513 timing sample gives lower scores than constant velocities for 39 measurements under four tested priors for independent Gaussian noise

We test the released Kepler-1513 transit timing sample with 34 HIRES and five NEID velocities. The timing fit did not use these velocities in its likelihood. We preserve all 29,982 joint parameter rows and calculate Newtonian velocity predictions. Each instrument has a separate constant offset and independent Gaussian extra noise. We integrate both terms and average the likelihood over the stored timing rows. The adopted subset has a score ratio of 0.164 relative to constant velocities for a half normal extra noise prior with scale 10 m/s. The ratio ranges from 0.153 to 0.171 across four tested priors. The adopted subset weight falls from 32.6% to 14.9% within the full released sample. These velocities give no added support to this fixed timing prediction under the tested noise models. This result does not rule out planet c. The stored sample does not cover every possible orbit, and the tests do not model correlated stellar noise. The package contains the inputs, source records, code, predictions, figures, and numerical checks.

Kepler-1513 · transit timing variations · radial velocity · predictive likelihood · public data · Newtonian integration · reproducible research