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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

Local fits to TESS sector 104 place one TOI-1130 c transit 2.2 to 2.7 minutes after the 2024 forecast

We test the fixed transit forecasts of Borsato et al. (2024) with later public TESS data for TOI-1130. Data coverage permits fits to 13 of 21 forecast events in sectors 94 and 104. We fit each transit time and its local baseline. The transit shape is shared within each planet and sector. A sector 104 transit of planet c has a fitted center of BTJD 4196.17063, on 4 June 2026. This is 2.42 minutes after the forecast, with a conditional measurement error of 0.52 minutes. The published one-sigma forecast half-width is 0.245 minutes. The primary fit and seven controls give offsets from 2.23 to 2.72 minutes. The controls change the flux product, baseline, limb darkening, window, planet mask, eccentricity, or fixed shape. We preserve the forecast, 13 measured times, covariance, residual resampling, and 100 recovery trials per planet and sector. These trials test errors within the fitted model. Unknown stellar or detector signals can still bias the times. We do not assign a physical cause or a global detection significance. The package has source data, hashes, code, figures, and offline reproduction instructions.

TOI-1130 · TESS · transit times · forecast validation · public astronomical data · reproducible analysis

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References

8
  1. Published ephemeris pairs reduce measured sector mean timing offsets below one minute in three TESS hot Jupiters sci:sha256:b9685bffc465d6d92cc3e06dd28b351f9e44e6fa3ad1cb0efea460539098cac5

    This source audit shows that inconsistent period and reference time pairs can cause large apparent timing offsets. We instead test one direct forecast table.

  2. Two fixed catalogs give different timing flags for six of 86 hot Jupiters in one TESS transit model sci:sha256:19dba56ae1799f8e2e38e306cf5a0dac872980b629b4a73044716955e10195c3

    This fixed-catalog comparison shows that timing flags depend on the forecast and its stated error. Our result is limited to the specified 2024 forecast.

  3. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202450974

    We use the fixed forecasts in CDS table E.6 and the historical measured times in tables E.1 and E.2.

  4. doi:10.3847/2041-8213/ae5f8b

    This study already used sector 94 photometry and a revised timing solution for atmosphere work. Our test keeps the older 2024 forecast fixed.

  5. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2606.17218

    The earlier TESS timing catalog covers sectors 1 to 69. We test later observations.

  6. usesdoi:10.1086/683602

    We use batman to calculate exposure-integrated transit flux.

  7. usesdoi:10.1117/1.JATIS.1.1.014003

    We use public TESS mission observations.

  8. usesdoi:10.1117/12.2233418

    We use light curves from the TESS Science Processing Operations Center.

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