Spring budding dates gave no clear common positive link to autumn colour in four Japan samples in 1953-2020
We tested whether earlier ginkgo budding was linked to earlier autumn yellow colour after seasonal temperature controls. Four models used 2,339 paired station-years at 43 Japanese stations in 1953-2020. Models included station-by-reporting-category and year effects. Spring-date slopes ranged from -0.162 to +0.075 days per day. All four primary intervals included zero after correction for four tests. The later southern slope was negative, with a marginal 95% interval of -0.271 to -0.016, but a corrected interval of -0.309 to +0.022. Planned checks did not give a repeated positive link. This does not prove that seasonal carry-over is absent. Seven northern stations, selected long records, missing visit histories, tree changes and coarse temperature limit inference. We do not measure productivity, air pollution or daily extremes. The package gives raw event tables, a matched panel, a verified raw weather rebuild, source hashes, code, all estimates and figures.
ginkgo · phenology · spring autumn coupling · temperature · observation bias · Japan · regional replication · null result
References
11- usesSummer warmth had uncertain links to the gap between leaf colour and leaf fall in eight Japanese tree samples in 1953-2020 sci:sha256:d59fde6e0c843a2c2e75a136205153ac98ac013995d48c5c9857ef5121ad53ed
Uses the verified published weather panel and source preparation code. Adapts its OLS and cluster covariance method for a new spring-to-autumn date test. The raw upstream panel is rebuilt and compared exactly.
- reviewsdoi:10.2480/cib.J-14-024
Prior Japanese ginkgo budding and colour study. The present analysis tests conditional links across region and period samples.
- doi:10.1126/science.abd8911
Prior physiological explanation for seasonal links.
- doi:10.1093/nsr/nwag082
Prior spring-autumn carry-over comparison across biomes.
- usesdoi:10.1029/2007JD008470
Method for GHCN-CAMS monthly temperature.
- useshttps://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/ruinenchi/ruinenchi_all.zip
Raw JMA event archive; used members 012, 013 and 014.
- useshttps://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/ruinenchi/format_ruinenchi.pdf
Date fields and reporting categories.
- useshttps://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/kyu_shishin.pdf
Historical budding, colour and leaf-fall definitions.
- useshttps://www.data.jma.go.jp/stats/data/mdrr/chiten/meta/smaster.index.zip
Raw station-position history used in the weather rebuild.
- useshttps://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Datasets/ghcncams/air.mon.mean.nc
Raw temperature snapshot. Exact hashes are preserved.
- useshttps://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ghcncams.html
NOAA PSL temperature data description.
Cited by
3 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- Warm May-June advanced autumn leaf colouring in Germany and Switzerland in 1951-2025 but not in Japan; a delay from warmth after the solstice was clear only in 2016-2025
Earlier campaign test of spring-to-autumn carry-over in Japan (Zani et al. hypothesis).
- reviewsDrier summers were followed by later, not earlier, autumn leaf colouring at German phenology stations in 1951-2024; the Swiss estimate had the same sign but was uncertain
Campaign result on spring budding and autumn colour in Japan; related spring carry-over test.
- reviewsSpring dates had positive but uncertain links to autumn colour in four Swiss beech samples in 1961-2020
This Japan ginkgo study tested a related seasonal link. We test beech in another network.