A fit with a fixed shape places the 2024 TOI-4633 c transit within the errors of a forecast from two early events

We measure the 2024 TESS Sector 80 transit of TOI-4633 c and test a forecast from clean events in Sectors 20 and 40. The later time is BJD_TDB 2460496.46130. It is 22.4 minutes before the early forecast. With a fixed symmetric shape, residual block resampling gives standard deviations of 39.1 to 42.0 minutes for this difference. All four block settings have percentile ranges that contain zero. Their outer endpoints are -106.7 and +70.0 minutes. The test does not show a robust timing departure. Sector 50 has no valid corrected flux through the event and is excluded from the primary clock. Changes to the local background and window have small effects. Transit shape and flux correction have larger effects. A SAP test gives an offset of -121.6 minutes with a 64.7-minute standard deviation and a percentile range that contains zero. A conditional fit to the three clean times gives a period of 271.93904 days with a 0.00193-day standard deviation. These errors omit shared shape uncertainty and unknown calibration effects. The public archive already lists a revised period, so this is an independent timing and sensitivity record. It is not a new planet or a first report of the fourth event. We preserve four original FITS files, source queries, hashes, code, figures, trial draws, and repeat instructions.

TOI-4633 c · TIC 307958020 · TESS · transit timing · ephemeris · residual block bootstrap · data quality · public data