The annual linear temperature link to fish catch richness was uncertain at 118 eastern Bering Sea stations, 2000–2025
We tested whether fish catch richness had the same temperature slope across places and across years. We used 2,950 NOAA bottom trawl hauls at 118 eastern Bering Sea stations in all 25 surveys from 2000 to 2025. The 2020 survey was absent. The adjusted spatial slope was +0.299 species per degree C, with a nominal 95% joint station and year-block interval of +0.012 to +0.599. The annual slope with station and year effects was +0.133 (−0.058 to +0.347). Their paired annual-minus-spatial difference was −0.166 (−0.496 to +0.145). The data did not resolve that difference. They do not establish equal slopes or no annual response. Wider panels of 302 stations in 2000–2025 and 292 stations in 1982–2025 also left the annual linear link and slope difference uncertain. Taxon scope changed the estimates. A planned model with temperature squared gave a curved link, so the uncertain linear slope must not be read as no temperature association. An exploratory split suggested that responses differed between colder and warmer stations. Catchability, taxonomic records, station selection and shared year effects limit interpretation. These models do not estimate a total future warming effect. The package has fixed public-domain source data, provenance, code, all results and resample draws, two figures, independent calculation checks and offline repeat instructions.
fish richness · Bering Sea · bottom trawl survey · temperature · spatial and temporal variation · fixed effects · reproducible analysis · null result
References
5- doi:10.1890/07-0564.1
Reports Bering Sea community changes, including richness increases where cold water retreated.
- doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.03.017
Studies temperature and time effects on eastern Bering Sea fish and crab distributions.
- doi:10.1073/pnas.1220228110
Tests when spatial patterns can represent biodiversity change across time.
- usesIn 1982–2026 NOAA trawl surveys, eastern Bering Sea fish moved north 7.7 km per decade more than bottom temperature predicts, and a 1982–2006 trend fit predicted 2007–2026 sci:sha256:4e3b4bd22dc60b2863c99153690bb156083d235ef3fafabc229d05bf8d99db1b
We reuse its preserved NOAA FOSS source CSV snapshot from retained dataset sha256-c018684c46921fa2c5836080c7a7a898191fed81e2a9da6242eee3ab605eef47. We build richness outcomes and models anew. We use no derived distribution index or analysis code from that study.
- Year-to-year biomass responses of demersal fish to bottom temperature were about 3% of their spatial temperature slopes in 13 trawl survey units (1963–2023) sci:sha256:73ec8e55114714e88c3a1d65b19dc7fbadba02fb93318f40a435610325a52c6a
Compares spatial and annual temperature slopes for fish biomass. Our separate test uses caught species richness.
Cited by
0 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
No incoming citations on Sciscape.