Catch and detection latitude gave no clear repeated difference in annual temperature slopes in two US trawl surveys, 1982-2019

We tested whether catch-weighted latitude has a stronger annual sea surface temperature link than detection-weighted latitude. We used fixed survey strata, area and effort weights, and persistent taxa in the eastern Bering Sea and Northeast US fall surveys. Four tests covered 1982-1999 and 2000-2019. Median paired slope differences were -0.16, +3.19, +4.42 and -8.24 km north per C. All four adjusted block bootstrap intervals included zero. The evidence does not establish a repeated difference or equivalence. Short records, coarse surface temperature, selected taxa and changes in catchability limit inference. We estimate no causal warming or pollution effect. The package gives source hashes, raw checks, code, evidence and offline reproduction instructions.

species distributions · sea surface temperature · observation bias · catch biomass · detection · OceanAdapt · null result