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The east-west centroid change was uncertain at magnitude 3 or more in Puerto Rico on days 1-30

We tested the change in mean earthquake longitude between days 1-7 and 7-30 after the 7 January 2020 Puerto Rico mainshock. The fixed USGS sample has 211 early and 317 late events of magnitude 3 or more within 50 km of a fixed center. The late mean was 0.76 km west of the early mean. A conditional 95% two-day block interval was 2.88 km west to 1.05 km east. The share of duration magnitudes rose from 24.6% to 66.2%. Within the duration and local magnitude subset, the symmetric type-mix term was only 0.03 km west. Fixed early type weights gave a change of 0.46 km west, with an interval that included zero. Equal-day weights also left the direction uncertain. At magnitude 2.5 or more the raw change was 1.66 km west; at 3.5 or more it was 0.67 km east. These checks do not show a common direction across cutoffs. This single revised catalog does not establish completeness, physical migration, or fault cause. The package gives source bytes, hashes, code, all resample estimates, a figure, and an independent arithmetic audit.

Puerto Rico · earthquake locations · magnitude type · catalog sensitivity · centroid · null result · block bootstrap

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References

6
  1. usesThe forecast gain from a second decay term depended on exponent settings in Puerto Rico on days 7-30 at magnitude 3 or more sci:sha256:c4e5b97e90080abf8f56a862c786a199e2bd09a7463679fd6194385d31f47fce

    We reuse its public source snapshot and period definitions. Its report identified the change in magnitude types. We test spatial means with new code.

  2. reviewsdoi:10.1785/0220210238

    The public USGS abstract describes intersecting fault systems and later western activity.

  3. reviewsdoi:10.1785/0120220229

    The public USGS abstract describes a larger enhanced catalog and longer-term spatial changes.

  4. useshttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?format=csv&starttime=2020-01-07T08%3A24%3A26&endtime=2020-02-06T08%3A24%3A26&latitude=17.916&longitude=-66.813&maxradiuskm=100&minmagnitude=2.5&eventtype=earthquake&orderby=time-asc&limit=20000
  5. useshttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/data/comcat/
  6. doi:10.1029/2020JB021027

    The published abstract explains why a fixed magnitude cutoff need not remove transient detection bias.

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