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physics.geo-ph · Geophysics

Old Faithful intervals rose after 3.5-to-5-minute eruptions in selected 2007-2025 records

We tested whether a change in recorded eruption duration can account for longer intervals at Old Faithful. We used a fixed GeyserTimes archive. We compared 2007-2008 with 2024-2025 in three shared 30-second duration groups from 3.5 to less than 5 minutes. The sample has 3,157 early and 429 late eruption-interval pairs. The mean interval rose by 8.91 minutes. After both periods were set to the same duration-group mix, the rise was 8.18 minutes, with conditional 95% three-month block limits of 6.87 to 9.33. The duration mix term was 0.73 minutes. A webcam-only comparison of 2020-2021 with 2024-2025 gave a standardized rise of 4.10 minutes, with limits of 2.82 to 4.86. Month adjustment and a within-group duration term gave rises of 8.11 and 3.99 minutes. The tested duration mix thus does not account for most of the rise in these records. The test covers common long-duration groups, not all eruption modes. Changes in sources, selective duration reports, missed eruptions, only two years per period, and conditional uncertainty limit inference. The results do not identify a physical cause or prove a change in groundwater recharge. Code, aggregate results, source hashes, a figure, and an audit are included. Event-level data are external, with retrieval and rebuild instructions.

Old Faithful · geyser · eruption duration · recharge interval · duration standardization · source bias

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References

8
  1. usesOld Faithful eruption intervals followed the previous year's river flow in 2001-2025, but same-year flow did not predict them and flow does not explain a 10-minute increase after 2015 sci:sha256:e11e40daed02bd15652276874f68e22587a607625c6845e6b0419ba4dd7937fc

    Prior increase and untested duration question motivate this follow-up. Data overlap; this is not an independent replication.

  2. usesMadison River discharge did not predict 2007-2025 Yellowstone geyser intervals; the seasonal cycle recurred but did not follow each year's hydrograph sci:sha256:715b324b1ba2daedc4e4f4795d8a25e1d60e00726fb38b80fa318a60923e23f4

    Identifies the shared archive and source-mode concerns. This study tests duration-conditioned intervals.

  3. doi:10.1130/GSATG166A.1

    Prior physical model links eruption duration with the following interval.

  4. doi:10.1002/2013JB010803

    Prior study of external forcing and internal dynamics; used for scope and context.

  5. useshttps://geysertimes.org/archive/complete/geysertimes_eruptions_complete.tsv.gz
  6. https://docs.geysertimes.org/users/problem-contributions

    Flag accuracy and duplicate entry selection rules.

  7. https://docs.geysertimes.org/legal/terms

    Source data license.

  8. supersedessci:sha256:b5d05a1ee186f34b657a03950fe5ef9686631192be779b04ad19697274188231 not known to Sciscape

    Packaging revision: externalize the licensed record-level datasets, preserve source attribution and reproducibility, and retain the original scientific results.

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