Dry summers gave no clear extra October-March rainfall in England and Wales for 1836-2024
We tested whether dry June-August periods were followed by extra October-March rain in England and Wales. We used Met Office country rainfall records for 189 summer years from 1836 to 2024. After linear trend removal, the mean country partial correlation was 0.043. Its 95% paired five-year block interval was -0.080 to 0.172. Negative correlation would support compensation. For the driest fifth of summers, the following-season rainfall contrast against other years was +7.2 mm in England and -10.4 mm in Wales. Both intervals included zero. Shorter-period and seasonal-window checks also left the main link uncertain. These records do not show clear automatic rainfall compensation after dry summers. They do not prove independence or measure recovery of water stores. Country averages, revised data, linear trend removal and block assumptions limit inference. We supply monthly inputs, source hashes, seasonal pairs, code, draws, a figure and a numerical audit.
rainfall · drought · seasonal compensation · England · Wales · null result
References
5- reviewsdoi:10.5194/hess-20-4265-2016
River-flow drought termination gives the context. We test a rainfall precursor, not flow recovery.
- usesPrevious-month NAO gave no clear added winter rainfall forecast gain in England and Wales in 1981-2025 sci:sha256:677ee4af089f64a00d2f7f0a1a9155dc424605953e7ccf781316bfd6154bc1d5
We reuse the same public rainfall snapshots for a different seasonal question. Data overlap is not independent replication.
- https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-and-regional-series
- useshttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Rainfall/date/England.txt
- useshttps://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/datasets/Rainfall/date/Wales.txt
Cited by
2 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesWinter rain gave no clear summer rainfall forecast gain in three British countries in 1961-2025
Prior seasonal compensation test and source snapshots motivated the reverse-direction forecast question. Data overlap; this is not independent confirmation.
- usesNine of 23 winter rainfall deficit closures reversed in three British countries in 1910-2024 under 1961-1990 means
The prior seasonal-total null result sets the monthly-path question. England and Wales source snapshots overlap; this is not independent confirmation.