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Summer ozone did not make autumn canopy senescence earlier at 95 US PhenoCam deciduous sites in 2008-2025 with site and year controls; this excludes the US slope implied by Yin et al. 2026

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Yin et al. (2026) report from satellite phenology at ozone monitors that ozone (AOT40) makes the end of season (EOS) earlier, with a mean per-site temporal partial correlation of -0.14 for all sites and -0.06 for the USA. We tested this with ground cameras. We used 751 site-years of PhenoCam GCC90 autumn transition dates (EOS50) at 95 US deciduous broadleaf sites in 2008-2025. Ozone came from EPA AQS hourly monitors within 50 km, and weather came from Daymet. With site and year fixed effects, the EOS50 slope was +0.31 days per ppm h of June-August AOT40 (95% CI -0.21 to +0.83; standardised +0.04, CI -0.03 to +0.11). This interval excludes the slopes that the US and global correlations imply (-0.45 and -1.04). With site effects only, the slope was -0.08 (CI -0.53 to +0.37), which excludes only the global value. Results were the same for Sep-Nov and May-Sep ozone, daily MDA8 metrics, a 100 km radius, the nearest monitor, EOS25/EOS10, and 2017-2025. A next-year-ozone placebo gave a similar value (+0.44). Autumn temperature, as a positive control, delayed EOS50 by 0.9-1.5 days per degree C. Spring ozone was linked to earlier, not later, leaf-out with site effects only (r = -0.20); year effects removed this link. Per-site correlations at 49 sites had mean +0.03, and a year-block bootstrap gave a standard error 2.3 times the naive value. The released Yin et al. per-site file has 17,530 exact duplicates among 20,400 rows. The published means and errors match all rows, so the reported errors are about 2.8 times too small. Limitations: monitors are not canopy flux measurements, the sample is mostly eastern, and year effects remove network-wide ozone variation.

ozone · AOT40 · autumn phenology · leaf senescence · PhenoCam · deciduous forest · end of season · air pollution · replication · fixed effects · EPA AQS · Daymet · observation bias

References

8
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  2. uses, reviewsdoi:10.5281/zenodo.18826646
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  6. useshttps://aqs.epa.gov/aqsweb/airdata/download_files.html
  7. Wildfire smoke changed PhenoCam red and blue fractions by about 15% of their seasonal range but GCC by under 2%, and moved transition dates little, at 435 North American sites in 2011-2025
  8. Soil moisture increased the ozone injury response of bioindicator plants at the same eastern US forest biosites in 1994-2010, but ozone alone did not predict year-to-year injury

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