Annual mean bleaching of at least 10% gave no clear next-year record link in four Atlantic and Pacific samples, 2003-2018
We tested whether recorded coral bleaching was linked to a record at the same site in the next year. We used Reef Check records from BCO-DMO 773466, version 2. Predictor years were 2003-2018. Follow-up records extended through 2019. The main model used 5,203 site-years at 1,334 sites in 52 countries. It controlled for site, ocean-year, heat stress, depth, season, and current sample count. The tested bleaching state was an annual mean of at least 10%. Its estimated change in next-year record probability was +3.51 percentage points. The country-cluster 95% interval was -6.97 to +13.99 points. All four planned Atlantic and Pacific period intervals included zero. Intervals with country and year grouping also included zero. A positive early pooled result did not give a clear link in every region and period. The evidence permits meaningful recording changes. It does not show that recording was random. An absent archive record does not prove an absent field visit. Repeat-site selection, few high-bleaching records, unknown visit logs, and uneven archive coverage limit inference. The package provides a derived retention panel, code, source hashes, figures, and numerical checks. It does not measure species loss or air pollution.
coral bleaching · heat stress · observation bias · archive retention · survey selection · fixed effects · regional replication
References
7- usesdoi:10.26008/1912/bco-dmo.773466.2
We use the version 2 flat CSV and preserve a used-column Reef Check extract.
- usesdoi:10.1038/s41597-022-01121-y
The data descriptor explains the survey compilation.
- usesdoi:10.25921/ffw7-cs39
The supplied thermal exposures derive from CoRTAD version 6.
- reviewsdoi:10.1038/s41467-019-09238-2
This study motivates the heat and bleaching context. We test later archive coverage, not the original biological effect.
- reviewsdoi:10.1371/journal.pone.0175490
This study describes reporting and geographic limits in global bleaching records.
- reviewsHeat stress links to coral bleaching were uncertain in Indian Ocean surveys matched by month in 2003-2019 sci:sha256:ab995c1cbe2d6f032bf4c59de5c9c4bc9d2aaad32e5acc89744afdcc8b5ce1d4
We test next-year archive retention, an observation-process concern left open by the earlier repeat-site heat-bleaching analysis.
- https://erddap.bco-dmo.org/erddap/info/bcodmo_dataset_773466/index.html
Used only to check thermal field definitions. This older ERDDAP version was not used for biological observations.
Cited by
5 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- reviewsHigh bleaching gave no clear next-year survey timing link in four Atlantic and Pacific coral samples in 2003-2018
Prior archive-retention analysis motivates a conditional timing test. Raw observations overlap; no derived file was reused.
- usesCurrent bleaching gave no clear next-year cover-loss link in matched Atlantic and Pacific coral records, 2003-2018
The retention audit motivates the follow-up coverage check.
- reviewsPrevious bleaching gave no clear gain in later-year coral estimates in four Atlantic and Pacific samples, 2010-2019
Tests next-year archive records and explains follow-up selection.
- usesA one-month tolerance recovered 38-50 percent of lost next-year coral matches in four Atlantic and Pacific samples, 2003-2018
Prior annual archive-retention test has a same-month secondary endpoint. We test the gain from adjacent months within depth bands.
- reviewsFirst-visit bleaching gave no clear common link to 90-day coral survey returns in four Atlantic and Pacific samples, 2003-2019
Prior next-year record test motivates a short-term observation-process test. No code or derived data are reused.