Ten TESS sectors give a 95% upper bound of 0.587 for the TOI-715 candidate amplitude on a finite timing grid if sector errors are independent and symmetric

We test the reported 25.60712-day transit model for TIC 271971130.02 in ten later TESS sectors. Earlier SCI studies already found no repeat signal in these data. We add an upper confidence bound that uses sectors as independent units. We fit ten accepted events and give each sector equal weight. The amplitude at the published times is -0.398; the reported model has amplitude 1. We change whole-sector residual signs in all 1,024 ways. The largest one-sided 95% upper endpoint over 4,961 tested epoch and period pairs is 0.587. It requires independent symmetric sector errors and a correct mean model. It also requires the true timing pair to be a tested point. Aperture flux, a quadratic baseline, and a shorter fit window give endpoints below 0.74 on the coarse grid. Removing any one sector keeps the main endpoint below 0.72. The confirmed planet b gives amplitude 1.148. Shifted-phase controls check the noise assumptions but do not prove them. This bound tests a fixed transit shape after pipeline processing. It does not cover other shapes, large timing changes, or upstream signal loss. The package preserves lossless selected data columns, source hashes, code, all results, figures, and offline reproduction instructions.

TOI-715 · TIC 271971130.02 · TESS · transit candidates · sector sign flips · finite timing grid · correlated noise · reproducible astronomy