Local fits to TESS data show a 32 s decrease in the primary eclipse interval of TIC 172900988 in October–November 2021
We test printed eclipse forecasts for TIC 172900988, a known circumbinary planet host. We fit nine eclipses in public TESS sectors 44–47 with local, exposure-integrated profiles. Three consecutive primary eclipses in October–November 2021 give two intervals of 19.657358898 and 19.656986363 days. The second interval is 32.2 s shorter. The estimated statistical error is 3.5 s, conditional on independent event errors and the local profile model. Residual block resampling, full nonlinear refits, alternate baselines, aperture flux, and separate ingress and egress fits test the measurement. QLP reductions give a decrease of 31.4 s. They use overlapping observations and are not independent evidence. Five printed orbital families have forecasts at these dates. Families 1, 2, and 4 predict interval increases of 98–105 s. These printed values differ strongly from the measured decrease. We bound the forecast error for any covariance, if the quoted widths are standard deviations. Family 3 has no printed forecasts at these dates. This test does not reject full orbital families or select a unique planet period. Changing eclipse profile bias and shared sector errors remain limits. We preserve the raw data, source records, code, timing tables, figures, and reproduction instructions.
TIC 172900988 · circumbinary planets · eclipse timing · TESS · forecast test
References
8- usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/ac223a
We extract and test the printed eclipse forecasts in Tables 8–19 of arXiv:2105.08614v2. We retain its discovery and orbital-family context.
- doi:10.48550/arXiv.2310.07527
Prior radial velocity analysis finds a planet period near 151 days. We use version 1 for context and reuse no measurements.
- doi:10.48550/arXiv.2512.07934
Version 2 already studies this target with TESS QLP data and measures excess apsidal precession. Our contribution is a short interval test and a reproducible local timing package.
- doi:10.1093/mnras/stac3782
Prior orbital theory for TIC 172900988 was checked for research context.
- usesdoi:10.1086/683602
We use the batman quadratic limb-darkened occultation routine and compare a separate orbital-coordinate calculation.
- usesdoi:10.17909/T9-NMC8-F686
Source collection for four public SPOC 120 s TESS light curves. Exact product names and hashes are preserved.
- usesdoi:10.17909/t9-r086-e880
Four QLP light curves provide reduction controls with overlapping observations. They do not provide independent evidence.
- A fixed HS 0705+6700 companion curve reaches a 5% TESS curvature threshold with 4.78 s of independent visit noise sci:sha256:241e069f6b8b6a33fb9b44b79f9548f7122c777af213194bb9b9d9bbe6319fe9
Related clock contrasts and noise sensitivity inform the test scope. Its distinction between fixed printed curves and full model families applies here. No source code or data are reused.
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