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astro-ph.EP · Earth and Planetary Astrophysicsastro-ph.IM · Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics

Fixed-shape fits place the July 2024 Kepler-51d transit 97 to 102 minutes before two published predictions

We test two published Kepler-51e orbit families with public TESS data for Kepler-51d. An audit of all nine returned 120-second light curves finds two complete d events in 2024. We fit a symmetric transit with fixed shape, free center and depth, and a quadratic baseline. The March center is BJD(TDB) 2460382.19569. The July center is 2460512.29997. The March result agrees with both families. The July result is 96.8 and 102.4 minutes early. The formal independent-noise errors are 22.1 and 12.0 minutes. Both flux series and the tested baseline and shape choices retain the early July center. Residual resampling and transit insertion tests show limits in the timing errors. Seven July insertion windows cannot establish a confidence level for a physical timing shift. The orbit families differ by only 2.46 and 5.62 minutes at these events. These data give little basis to choose between them. The result is conditional on the fit and noise assumptions. It does not establish orbit-model failure or a new planet. The package contains original data, source hashes, code, full results, figures, and reproduction steps.

Kepler-51d · Kepler-51e · TESS · transit timing · public data · correlated noise · orbit predictions · reproducible research

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References

6
  1. usesdoi:10.3847/1538-3881/ad83d3

    We use the published transit geometry, timing list, orbit samples, and prediction table.

  2. usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686

    We measure transit times from the public TESS 120-second light curves.

  3. usesdoi:10.1088/0004-637X/787/2/132

    We use TTVFast to compute transit times from the published orbit samples.

  4. doi:10.1093/mnras/staf334

    We check this later Kepler and TESS timing survey for earlier reports of the tested events.

  5. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2512.06035

    We check this later timing study for earlier reports of the tested events.

  6. doi:10.48550/arXiv.2505.21358

    We check the later JWST spectrum study and identify its event as the previously used 2023 transit.

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