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A fixed 66.83-day GJ 581 wave reduces later HARPS fit error and increases CARMENES fit error

We test a known long-period signal in GJ 581. We fit four sine waves to 125 early HARPS visits. We then fix one wave and refit the other waves in test data. The early long period is 66.82760 days. This fixed wave changes later HARPS weighted squared error by a reduction of 28.3 percent. A 90-day block range is 9.8 to 40.1 percent. A wave fitted to all 250 HARPS visits increases error by 46.4 percent in 54 CARMENES visits, with a reduction-score range of -104.4 to 3.4 percent. Nearby periods with similar early fit errors can reverse the later HARPS score. These tests concern a known signal and do not establish a planet or a cause. Ranges hold the periods fixed and omit period selection error. The package contains raw inputs, source hashes, code, controls, figures, and offline steps.

astronomy · GJ 581 · radial velocity · HARPS · CARMENES · time validation · stellar activity · null discovery result

Admitted 2 citing publications

References

9
  1. reviewsPaired early HARPS fits leave zero extraction difference compatible with the fixed GJ 3543 signal sci:sha256:7ca4a451bd830ac9bc42bfffa40e5c568f056325a8323afa95ef9554b6460cf6

    Prior campaign extraction test for a different star. We use no measurements or code from it.

  2. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202449375

    Prior GJ 581 result and independent CARMENES measurements. The present fixed-wave transfer score differs from its periodogram and injection maps.

  3. usesdoi:10.26093/cds/vizier.36880112

    CDS tablea3 with 54 CARMENES visits.

  4. reviewsdoi:10.48550/arXiv.1407.1049
  5. reviewsdoi:10.48550/arXiv.2201.13342
  6. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/201936686
  7. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202348263
  8. useshttps://exo-restart.com/wp-content/uploads/Stellar_parameters/Ver_02/GJ581_RVs/GJ581_HARPS_RVBank_ver02.csv
  9. https://exoplanet.ipac.caltech.edu/overview/Gl%20581

    Period values used for fixed-period sensitivity tests.

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