Evidence for period growth in WASP-46 b depends on the error scale in nine TESS sectors
We measure 135 transit times of WASP-46 b in nine public 120-second TESS sectors from 2018 to 2026. Six sectors add 90 accepted transits after the TESS coverage in two recent target studies. The primary quadratic clock, chosen before the flux fits, gives a period change of +16.03 ms per Julian year and a 95% interval of +6.04 to +26.01 ms/year. It fits a common error scale and reduces the input sector errors by a factor of 2.66. An added check that keeps the input errors gives a 95% interval of -5.29 to +37.34 ms/year. Planned year grouping and omission of sector 1 also give intervals that include zero. All eleven flux and transit-shape configurations give positive best estimates, but the evidence for growth depends on the error model. The data permit the fixed +22.7 ms/year rate when epoch and period are free. They do not establish a physical period increase. The package preserves the raw light curves, all event decisions, provenance, code, tables, figures, and numerical and reproduction checks.
WASP-46 b · TESS · transit timing · period change · timing errors · reproducible astronomy
References
12- supportsdoi:10.3847/PSJ/ad3e80
This study motivates the +22.7 ms/year rate test. Its early TESS exposures overlap three sectors in our sample.
- supportsdoi:10.1088/1538-3873/ae406a
This timing study lists sectors 1, 27, and 67. Our analysis adds six later sectors to that TESS coverage.
- doi:10.48550/arXiv.2310.17225
Prior timing analysis discusses positive rates and residual scatter.
- doi:10.1134/S1063773721090024
Prior analysis reports evidence for period growth.
- doi:10.1093/mnras/stx2647
Prior work discusses stellar activity and timing scatter.
- usesdoi:10.1093/mnras/stv2698
The timing-template geometry follows this work through a saved archive row.
- usesdoi:10.1117/1.JATIS.1.1.014003
The observations come from the TESS mission.
- usesdoi:10.17909/t9-nmc8-f686
Nine public 120-second SPOC light curves are the raw inputs. Exact MAST identifiers and hashes are saved.
- usesdoi:10.26133/NEA12
The saved Planetary Systems row supplies target identification and template geometry.
- usesdoi:10.1086/683602
The batman transit calculation supplies the timing template and independent synthetic fluxes.
- Free source timing offsets remove more than 90% of period change information in 43 of 115 systems in a 2022 transit catalog sci:sha256:361975de1be4f2ad9783a0385173d9d3213b82580ddc31835761a89ca6366c39
Related work shows the loss of period-change information when timing sources have free offsets. We reuse no code or measurements.
- TESS 2-minute transit times of 153 bright hot Jupiters missed the NASA Exoplanet Archive default ephemeris predictions by more than 3 sigma for 33 planets (sectors 21-107) sci:sha256:1895bf428f65ddb5d621f1e1b67e6fe70b4074599f4ced66ffdc1cf0a99b69fe
Related TESS timing survey. WASP-46 is absent from its sample; we reuse no code or measurements.
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