Pacific recharge direction remained positive in both half-years after three large events were omitted in 1980-2024

We tested six-month direction in Pacific warm water volume and Nino 3.4 temperature with 44 annual anchors in 1980-2024. The mean signed area was 0.972 from March to September and 1.234 from September to March. Their paired difference was -0.262, with a conditional 95 percent three-year block interval of -0.650 to 0.158. Both directions remained positive after removal of nine anchors around the 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016 El Nino events. The area contrast then became negative, but its amplitude-normalized sine contrast still permitted zero. The known recharge direction therefore did not depend only on those three events. The primary seasonal contrast was uncertain. Endpoint geometry, fixed scales, few dependent cycles and revised products limit interpretation. This is a robustness test of a known pattern, not a causal mechanism, angular speed estimate or forecast test. Code, aggregate estimates, an independent scalar audit, a figure and exact source hashes support reproduction. External monthly records remain outside the package.

ENSO · warm water volume · recharge oscillator · seasonality · signed area · block bootstrap · null result