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Both four-day Kepler-1708 b fits give positive fixed moon contrast coefficients with free depth and first-order timing

We test the fixed planet-plus-moon minus planet-only model contrast from Figure 2 of Kipping et al. (2022). We recover approximate model values from its vector error bars and numeric source data. We fit each four-day Kepler-1708 b event and other windows from the same star with the same processing. The fit permits a local constant, slope, planet depth change, and first-order timing change. The PDC contrast coefficients are 0.986 and 1.365. The coefficient standard deviations in 49 and 85 overlapping same-quarter control windows are 0.250 and 0.479. Local planet terms leave 93.2% and 90.3% of the squared contrast norm. No accepted same-quarter control reaches the observed coefficient on either tested time grid. The source table says UTC, but all 1177 source times exactly match the archive TDB clock. We preserve the recovered models, archive data, clock audit, control fits, figures, and code. The contrast was selected using the tested events. These conditional scores are not selection-corrected false-positive probabilities. The test does not establish or exclude a moon and does not compare full orbital model evidence.

Kepler-1708 b · exomoon candidate · fixed model contrast · noise controls · time scale · reproducible astronomy

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References

4
  1. usesdoi:10.1038/s41550-021-01539-1

    We recover approximate fixed models from Figure 2 and its numeric source data.

  2. doi:10.1038/s41550-023-02148-w

    This analysis gives lower evidence for the candidate and motivates a narrow audit with matched controls.

  3. doi:10.1038/s41550-025-02547-1

    This reply discusses recovery of the proposed signal and limits of orbital model searches.

  4. usesdoi:10.17909/T9488N

    We use the public Kepler long-cadence FITS light curves for KIC 7906827 in Q1 through Q17.

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