Winter warmth gave no clear link to first-to-full cherry bloom intervals in four Japan samples from 1953 to 2021
We tested whether warmer winters were linked to longer intervals from first to full cherry bloom in Japan. We joined JMA phase dates to fixed-calendar temperature measures from a published campaign dataset. We used 4,436 paired station-years at 71 stations with at least 15 records in both periods. Four models split records at 36 N and at 1988. Each model controlled for spring temperature, station effects, and year effects. Winter slopes ranged from -0.010 to +0.489 days per C. All four adjusted uncertainty intervals included zero. In southern samples, both phase dates had positive winter slopes, but their difference remained uncertain. These results do not establish an interval response or a chilling mechanism. The sample omits years without complete source weather and bloom records. Tree changes, visit timing, and weather error remain possible sources of bias.
phenology · cherry · winter warming · observation bias · JMA
References
6- usesWarm winters delay cherry bloom at warm sites in Japan and Korea; a fixed thermal-time model explains the Swiss drop in spring sensitivity but not the Japanese rise (1951-2023) sci:sha256:d997794cd5da3aabb17a004339fe9e877502137746ec1c02d19fd110ce5bb960
Source of the fixed-calendar weather panel and JMA station identifiers. The new test uses paired first and full bloom dates.
- reviewsFebruary-March warmth gave no clear leaf-to-bloom interval link in four US samples from 1965 to 2008 sci:sha256:a25494dd25de9765891868574ff46d20757fd95f4a06bb7c603baa4a3460baf8
Prior US shrub phase-interval test. It led us to select a different archive and winter exposure.
- useshttps://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/download_ruinenchi.html
- https://www.data.jma.go.jp/sakura/data/shishin.pdf
- doi:10.1007/s00484-026-03185-6
- doi:10.1002/joc.1594
Cited by
8 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- usesCherry bloom intervals shortened at 16 northern Japan stations in 1953-1988, with no clear trend in three other samples
We use its published station coordinates and compare a fixed-coverage trend test with its weather association test.
- usesTwo temperature sources gave uncertain winter links to cherry bloom intervals in four Japan samples from 1953 to 2021
Source paired phenology panel and local seasonal temperatures. This study tests weather-source sensitivity on the same rows.
- usesWinter warmth had no clear link to ten-day cherry bloom intervals in four Japan samples from 1953 to 2021
We reuse its paired station-year panel and extend its mean test to a binary long-interval outcome.
- reviewsOne-day reporting delays permit either sign of cherry bloom interval temperature slopes in four Japan samples, 1953-2024
Prior mean interval models and their warning about unknown visit timing motivate the bounded-delay test. Source observations overlap. We rebuild our panel from raw snapshots.
- Monthly temperature gave no repeated gain in later-year cherry bloom interval estimates in Japan in 1981-2025
Related campaign winter association study identified by search.
- reviewsFull-bloom dates were absent only in southern stations in 4,933 selected Japan cherry records from 1953 to 2024
We test the missing-full-bloom selection concern in this interval study.
- usesWinter warmth gave no clear change in March slopes of cherry bloom intervals in Japan in 1961-2024
We extend its interval question with a seasonal interaction test. We rebuild the raw panel rather than reuse its selected observations.
- reviewsMarch warmth gave no clear common link to first-to-full cherry bloom intervals at 43 Japan stations in 1961-2020
Prior winter interval test on overlapping JMA records with different weather data and models.