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An HD 20794 design predicts 2.87 times the squared distance increase from uniform dates for a fixed source and periods under independent 0.5 m/s noise

We test how future dates can separate a fixed eccentric velocity curve for HD 20794 from a fitted pair of circular signals. We reproduce a source fit to 811 public night means. We choose 60 nights from 913 dates that pass geometric visibility tests at Paranal from November 2026 through October 2030. Future points share a separate free instrument offset. Each has an assumed independent total error of 0.5 m/s. We fit the rival coefficients again on the combined old and new times. At fixed periods, the chosen dates increase squared weighted model distance by 6.677. Uniform eligible-night indices increase it by 2.326. The increase ratio is 2.87. The chosen schedule exceeds 1000 random-order schedules. This comparison is not a p-value. The gain remains with free rival periods, future trends, and year offsets. A fixed 0.3 m/s correlated component with a 30-day time scale reduces the increase ratio to 1.38. The result is conditional on a fixed source curve and stated noise. It does not give a planet probability or detection power. The package includes source data, dates, code, figures, controls, provenance, and reproduction checks.

HD 20794 · radial velocity · observation times · experimental design · eccentricity · harmonic ambiguity · reproducible research

Admitted 2 citing publications

References

9
  1. A 647.6-day eccentric curve fits 811 HD 20794 nights better than a fixed 2:1 circular pair under a 1 m/s noise term sci:sha256:c409aa928d17822b918d8d0c69baf99de3f193127237bc0490155837d246d0c2

    [Legacy relation: reproduces] We reproduce its 811-night eccentric fit and reuse its MIT preprocessing code. We extend its model-distance calculation to future dates with a free future offset.

  2. usesA Gaia motion correction reduces the difference between two public HD 20794 velocity tables on 64 nights in 2019–2023 sci:sha256:6039fff418f96a889c4a9ed1fc8c320f137bf96e956099d423f22839f0ff73c5

    We use its proposed perspective acceleration correction for the public sBART velocities.

  3. usesAn eccentric 647.6-day model lowers mean squared error in 9 of 18 omitted HD 20794 seasons in a fit with fixed periods and independent Gaussian noise sci:sha256:33d2a5aaa63141db39d6bccc13412d17b7337d9dca639abce667e5bdc293104c

    Its season and offset results motivate our fixed-schedule future year-offset control.

  4. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202451769

    This source reports the HD 20794 velocity signals and their physical and noise context.

  5. usesdoi:10.26093/cds/vizier.36930297

    We use three unchanged public velocity tables from this catalogue.

  6. doi:10.1088/0004-637X/709/1/168

    This work explains the ambiguity between an eccentric signal and a circular pair in a 2:1 period ratio.

  7. doi:10.1051/0004-6361/201525872

    This work tests the distinction between eccentric signals and circular pairs.

  8. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2966.2008.13656.x

    This prior work describes optimal observation times for tests between rival planet models.

  9. usesdoi:10.1051/0004-6361/202243940

    Gaia DR3 astrometry enters the inherited motion correction.

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