Spring warmth gave no clear link to missing first-bloom dates in four US plant samples from 1965 to 2008
We tested whether February-March warmth was linked to a missing first-bloom date when a first-leaf date was recorded. We used 15,705 repeated US lilac and honeysuckle plant-years in four region-period samples from 1965 to 2008. Models had plant and year effects. Slopes ranged from -0.18 to +0.99 percentage points per C. All four intervals adjusted for four tests included zero. All 32 sensitivity intervals also included zero under the same rule within each variant. The records did not establish a common temperature link or random missingness. Wide intervals, unknown visit effort, different taxon mixtures, coarse weather, and selection on leaf reports limit inference. Missing dates cannot separate missed observations from a true lack of flowering. The package contains a reusable completeness panel, code, source hashes, all estimates, numerical checks, and a figure.
phenology · missing data · observation bias · spring temperature · lilac · honeysuckle · null result
References
6- usesJanuary warmth did not show a common change in spring leaf-out sensitivity in four US samples from 1965 to 2008 sci:sha256:4013e401e3729fa644644a6c283dc17d760e75de0237068b6ce26aa07833a718
We adapt the raw builder and projection code and test a new record-completeness outcome.
- usesFebruary-March warmth gave no clear leaf-to-bloom interval link in four US samples from 1965 to 2008 sci:sha256:a25494dd25de9765891868574ff46d20757fd95f4a06bb7c603baa4a3460baf8
Original builder code inherited through the first-leaf study.
- usesdoi:10.1038/sdata.2015.38
- usesdoi:10.5061/dryad.0262m
- useshttps://www.sciencebase.gov/catalog/item/5499b905e4b093dfafda3575
- useshttps://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ghcncams.html
Cited by
3 publicationsPublic catalog entries on Sciscape.
- reviewsLater summer temperature had uncertain links to earlier lilac phase intervals in four western US samples in 1967-2008
Its report-completeness test shows a different observation-bias question in overlapping data.
- reviewsSpring warmth gave no clear link to next-year missing lilac bloom reports in four US samples in 1965-2007
Prior test of within-year bloom absence conditional on a leaf report.
- usesMissing-date bounds permit both slope signs in four US shrub samples from 1965 to 2008
Reuse the published completeness panel, provenance and raw build code; add bloom dates and new coefficient bounds.